Hurricane Patricia - One of the most powerful hurricanes on record.
At 12:00 UTC (8 a.m. EDT) on October 23rd, Hurricane Patricia became the most intense tropical cyclone in recorded history (globally) as it sustained wind speeds at 200 mph. Patricia grew from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane in 24 hours. Making Hurricane Patricia the greatest intensity rate (100 mb in 24 hours) in recorded history. When Hurricane Patricia intensified to 879 mb, it became the 5th most intense tropical cyclone in terms of minimum central pressure.
Satellite image of Hurricane Patricia
Rapid Intensification
The sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial pacific have been above-normal for most of this year, indicating that El Nino conditions will likely occur during the 2015/2016 winter season. After Patricia organized, it propagated east/northeast over very warm SSTs. The environmental conditions were favorable for Patricia to intensify. There was very little wind shear, no dry air intrusion, and warm SSTs. The SSTs were around 30℃ (86℉).
Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial pacific. source: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/PAC/20.jpg
Previous studies indicate that El Nino conditions can increase the likelihood of hurricane activity in the east Pacific ocean (Camargo et al. 2007). El Nino normally causes positive SST anomalies across the equatorial pacific as well as decreasing wind shear. However, the presence of El Nino was not the soul contributing factor to Hurricane Patricia's rapid intensification. For the past two years, there has been a consistent "blob" along the west coast of North America. The "blob" is a large area of above-normal SSTs, which might be in association with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the PDO goes through warm and cool phases. However, the PDO phases are every 20-30 years. Like ENSO, the PDO is in a warm phase, which is manifest with the above-normal SSTs along the pacific coast of North America. The combination of these two climate oscillations created favorable conditions for Hurricane Patricia to intensify rapidly. Additionally, with climate change, the ocean and atmospheric temperatures have increased, too. This combination of natural climate variability and climate change have increased the baseline temperature, which inherently allows the atmosphere to hold more water vapor. Therefore, there's more water available for tropical cyclones.
Satellite Movie Sees Record-Breaking Hurricane Patricia
Landfall
Patricia made landfall at approximately 7:15 p.m. EDT on Friday, October 23 near Cuixmal, Mexico as a category 5 hurricane. Which was only the second Pacific Hurricane on record to make landfall as a category 5. The maximum sustained wind speeds were 165 mph as it made landfall. This is the second most intense tropical cyclone to make landfall on record. Hurricane Patricia is behind Typhoon Haiyan, which made landfall with sustained winds of 174 mph.
What's in store for Patricia now?
Once Hurricane Patricia made landfall, it weakened to a tropical depression in 16 hours and combined with an upper-level low pressure system to cause rain across the southeast. The remnant of Patricia and the upper-level low caused extreme heavy rainfall over Texas, which caused more local flooding. Also, the combined systems are expected to continue across the southeast with the possibility of heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
24 hour total quantitative precipitation forecast. Source: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1445875070494
References:
Suzana J. Camargo, Kerry A. Emanuel, and Adam H. Sobel, 2007: Use of a Genesis Potential Index to Diagnose ENSO Effects on Tropical Cyclone Genesis. J. Climate, 20, 4819–4834.
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