ENSO Discussion and Summer Outlook

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of many natural climate oscillations that can alter our Earth's climate. Normally, the ocean upwells cold water off the western coast of South America, therefore causing a consistent band of thunderstorms around the equator. The thunderstorms usually propagate westward across the equatorial pacific. Sometimes, warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) occur across the equatorial pacific causing the atmospheric circulation to temporarily switch (Fig 1).

Figure 1. The far left picture depicts El Nino conditions, the middle depicts normal conditions, and the far right depicts La Nina Conditions. Source: http://www.reefresilience.org/images/Stressors_ENSO3.png

The above average SSTs normally begin around the spring/summer and if they last til the winter, it can alter the Earth's climate (these are what we call teleconnections). The more prevalent teleconnections occur in the winter months. In the United States, during the winter months an El Nino normally (each episode is different) causes:

1. Wetter conditions in Southern California and the Southwest 

2. Warmer conditions in the Pacific Northwest 

3. Wetter and cooler conditions in the Southeast 

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) just released the current ENSO's evolution earlier this week. CPC has issued an El Nino Advisory. Meaning, there is a 90% chance El Nino conditions will continue through the summer and an 80% chance of it lasting through the winter. Here are the latest SST anomalies: 

As you can see, there is an extensive range of above normal SSTs. They are about 1C above normal, which is pretty strong for this time of year. There is also fairly negative Outgoing Longwave Radiation, which enhances the convection (thunderstorms) and precipitation. Lastly, there are anomalous low level (850 hPa) westerly winds present. Overall, most of the models predict El Nino will persist throughout this year. If it does, it will give some relief to California because it usually causes decent rainstorms there. 

As for the summer outlook, CPC predicts normal temperature and precipitation conditions for most of NC (Fig 2). 

This May has been kind of dry with just 2.46" of rain thus far in Raleigh. A lot of NC is in a slight drought and hopefully it will not worsen too much. However, if El Nino conditions continue, the slight drought should be relieved. I personally like El Nino conditions because it makes for an interesting winter. We shall see. 

Cheers, 

10 of the best YouTube videos on Climate Change

10 of the best YouTube videos on Climate change

The link above is the original article. To make things a little more simple, I'll post the 10 best YouTube videos on Climate Change here:

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: Climate Change Debate (HBO)

NASA | A Year in the Life of Earth's CO2

The History of Climate Change Negotiations in 83 seconds

Climate Change | David Mitchell's Soapbox UPDATE

The Most Terrifying Video You'll Ever See

Gavin Schmidt: The emergent patterns of Climate Change 

I'm a Climate Scientist (Hungry Beast) 

Climate Change -- Those hacked emails

300 Years of Fossil Fuels in 300 seconds

13 Misconceptions about Global Warming

Greenhouse Effect Video

After many, many hours of work and frustrated I managed to produce a video discussing the greenhouse effect. Studies and surveys show that this topic is not as understood as it should be. I hope the video provides answers and clears up any confusion. It's kind of long (9 minutes), but I hope you watch and enjoy the whole thing!

Cheers,

Aurelia

Climate Change Depiction in the Media

Here are some examples of how Climate Change is depicted in the media. No climate message is neutral and they display a frame of some sort. Most of the images of Climate Change are negative, so I think it's best to discuss them (as they are more likely to be viewed by the public). Studies have found that images displaying negativity do not cause of long-term behavior change. Therefore, I find it prudent to discuss them so they may be avoided in the future. 

The first image was produced by Greenpeace. It presents two images. The top represents "then" while the bottom represents "now." This image is meant to provoke an emotional response from the viewer. Hulme, Chap 7 referenced a figure from Shanahan (2007) that stated various Climate Change frames. I would classify this image as a "catastrophe frame," because the melting glacier is meant to convince the audience that the Earth is indeed warming. The glacier melting represents the potential disasters mankind may face due to anthropogenic climate change. The catastrophe frame is meant from those who are already concerned about the future of the planet. I have some issues with this image, the first being the validity of the image. These images could have been taken during different seasons; however, there is no way to verify. Also, while this image may induce immediate worry from the audience, I do not believe it would cause a behavior change. Typically, images of this sort disengage the viewer. O'Neill et al. 2013 found that climate impact images were less efficacious, which is not the desired outcome of the Climate Change campaign. The audience has a difficult time connecting the image of the melting glacier to their personal life. Not to mention, the image gives to solution to the problem, which may cause the audience to feel helpless. In conclusion, I’ve seen this approach done frequently. I do not believe it has made much of an impact in the past. Therefore, I believe it is best to avoid images such as these in the future. Especially since most of the American public believes Climate change is occurring, but they place it low amongst their priorities.

source: http://tomohalloran.com/2014/01/11/risking-lives-promote-climate-change-hype/

The second image depicts a well-dressed man representing the “industrialized polluting nations” destroying the developing countries with Climate Change. The intended audience is for those who care about those in the developing countries. The frame used in this cartoon is the industrialized polluting nations are solely responsible for destroying the developing countries. The audience is assumed to distrust politicians and possess sympathy for the developing countries. While I understand the cartoon is meant to be comical, I do not think it will cause anyone to change his or her opinion. This cartoon is meant for those who already share similar opinions. To be frank, it may provoke frustration amongst the audience who oppose Climate Change because the artist portrays the polluting nations in a negative manner. I personally do not like this image because all it does is places blame. Cartoons, such as these, are seen as “liberal alarmists” ones and further divides the nation into skeptics and alarmists (Nisbet 2000). If we are going to solve this problem, we cannot be divided.