Hurricane Patricia - One of the most powerful hurricanes on record.

At 12:00 UTC (8 a.m. EDT) on October 23rd, Hurricane Patricia became the most intense tropical cyclone in recorded history (globally) as it sustained wind speeds at 200 mph. Patricia grew from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane in 24 hours. Making Hurricane Patricia the greatest intensity rate (100 mb in 24 hours) in recorded history. When Hurricane Patricia intensified to 879 mb, it became the 5th most intense tropical cyclone in terms of minimum central pressure.

Satellite image of Hurricane Patricia 

Rapid Intensification 

The sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial pacific have been above-normal for most of this year, indicating that El Nino conditions will likely occur during the 2015/2016 winter season. After Patricia organized, it propagated east/northeast over very warm SSTs. The environmental conditions were favorable for Patricia to intensify. There was very little wind shear, no dry air intrusion, and warm SSTs. The SSTs were around 30℃ (86℉). 

Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial pacific. source: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/PAC/20.jpg

Previous studies indicate that El Nino conditions can increase the likelihood of hurricane activity in the east Pacific ocean (Camargo et al. 2007). El Nino normally causes positive SST anomalies across the equatorial pacific as well as decreasing wind shear. However, the presence of El Nino was not the soul contributing factor to Hurricane Patricia's rapid intensification. For the past two years, there has been a consistent "blob" along the west coast of North America. The "blob" is a large area of above-normal SSTs, which might be in association with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the PDO goes through warm and cool phases. However, the PDO phases are every 20-30 years. Like ENSO, the PDO is in a warm phase, which is manifest with the above-normal SSTs along the pacific coast of North America. The combination of these two climate oscillations created favorable conditions for Hurricane Patricia to intensify rapidly. Additionally, with climate change, the ocean and atmospheric temperatures have increased, too. This combination of natural climate variability and climate change have increased the baseline temperature, which inherently allows the atmosphere to hold more water vapor. Therefore, there's more water available for tropical cyclones.

Satellite Movie Sees Record-Breaking Hurricane Patricia

Landfall
Patricia made landfall at approximately 7:15 p.m. EDT on Friday, October 23 near Cuixmal, Mexico as a category 5 hurricane. Which was only the second Pacific Hurricane on record to make landfall as a category 5. The maximum sustained wind speeds were 165 mph as it made landfall. This is the second most intense tropical cyclone to make landfall on record. Hurricane Patricia is behind Typhoon Haiyan, which made landfall with sustained winds of 174 mph.

What's in store for Patricia now?
Once Hurricane Patricia made landfall, it weakened to a tropical depression in 16 hours and combined with an upper-level low pressure system to cause rain across the southeast. The remnant of Patricia and the upper-level low caused extreme heavy rainfall over Texas, which caused more local flooding. Also, the combined systems are expected to continue across the southeast with the possibility of heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

24 hour total quantitative precipitation forecast. Source: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1445875070494

References:

Suzana J. Camargo, Kerry A. Emanuel, and Adam H. Sobel, 2007: Use of a Genesis Potential Index to Diagnose ENSO Effects on Tropical Cyclone Genesis. J. Climate, 20, 4819–4834.

doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4282.1

November Climate Summary - The Southeast

This is the first in a new climate summary series called Monthly Southeast Climate at a Glance. Aurelia Baca, SERCH Climate Specialist, will review NOAA/NCEI monthly climate summaries and provide temperature and precipitation highlights for the Southeastern region, along with impacts to agricultural and forestry sectors.

November Southeast Climate at a Glance

Temperature Summary

November was another warm and wet month for the entire Southeastern United States. Every Southeastern state observed well above average temperatures (Figure 1) as well as many temperature extremes. In fact, Florida experienced their warmest maximum temperature for the month of November. Alabama, Florida, southern Georgia, and western Virginia experienced the greatest deviations over the region. The monthly temperatures were 5-9 °F above the average.

Fig. 1. Statewide average temperature ranks for November. Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/statewidetavgrank/201511.gif

The warmest weather occurred from the 4th to the 7th. During this time, maximum temperatures exceeded 70°F across most of the southeast with some areas reaching the upper 80s °F and lower 90s °F. The coolest weather of the month occurred a few weeks later on the 23rd and 24th. The minimum temperature reached the 20s °F across much of the region. 

Precipitation Summary

Along with above average temperatures, every Southeastern state observed above normal precipitation totals (Figure 2). Arkansas experienced their wettest November on record. Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina were well above their respective average with monthly precipitation totals 150 to 300 percent of normal. The northern locations of the southeast and central Florida were the driest areas where precipitation totals were 25 to 50 percent of their normal.

Fig. 2. Statewide precipitation total ranks for November. Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/statewidepcpnrank/201511.gif

Consistent precipitation alleviated much of the drought conditions over the Southeast. Drought-free conditions (less than D1) increased from 98 to 100 percent by December 1st. The moderate drought (D1) conditions that were present in west-central Alabama, southern Georgia, and the Florida panhandle diminished as consistent precipitation fell across the region. 

Climate Impacts on Agriculture

The above average temperature and precipitation caused some issues among the agricultural sector. The abnormally warm and wet climate caused delayed harvest and reduced the quality of crops across the Southeast. Farmers in Georgia reported their pecan orchards sprouted prematurely. Also, Carolina farmers reported their harvest on cotton, soybeans, and peanuts were poor due to the above average precipitation. 

Conclusions 

The above average precipitation is most likely indicative of El Nino's influence on our weather pattern. Similar conditions are likely to persist throughout the remainder of December causing mild weather conditions for the end of 2015.

References:
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: National Overview for November 2015, published online December 2015, retrieved on December 14, 2015 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201511 

Raleigh November Climate Summary

The Holiday season is quickly approaching and the weather certainly doesn't agree. This November was much above normal for Raleigh, North Carolina. November was warm and wet. 

The average temperature was 55.43F, which was 3.16F above our norm. For Raleigh, this November was the sixth warmest November on record. In fact, 19 out of 30 days were above normal. Both the maximum and minimum temperature were much above normal, too (1.8F and 4.53F, respectively). See Figure 1 for more details. 

Fig. 1. November average temperature for KRDU. Data source: NCDC

November precipitation was much above normal, too. The total precipitation for Raleigh was 7.14", which is 4.02" above the norm. November was the sixth wettest November on record. See Figure 2 for more details. 

Fig. 2. Daily November precipitation totals for KRDU. Data source: NCDC

December will likely follow a similar trend. Most of the Southeastern U.S. is expected to experience above normal temperatures (figure 3) and above average precipitation (figure 4). 

Fig. 3. One-month temperature outlook. Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif

Fig. 4. One-month precipitation outlook. Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off15_prcp.gif

The above average precipitation is most likely in association with El Nino. As stated in the previous post, El Nino tends to enhance the subtropical jet, which causes storms to track across the Southeast. Inherently causing above average precipitation across the Southeast. 

Overall, November was warm and wet. With a little help from El Nino, December will likely be a similar story.